Forecasting

[The picture looks more suitable for a topic on biology and genetics, but I flat out couldn’t think of anything to draw. Finance/math topics are not easy topics to generate pictures – the topic tend to be on the dry side.] The past week has been relatively busy so I haven’t written much. It’s going…

Today we live in a world where managers and shareholders expect you to meet the forecast within 5% or you may suffer the consequences. However, a forecast is just that: a forecast, not a perfect prediction or even close to perfect prediction. If somebody consistently meets their forecast quarter after quarter, year after year, then…

Over the weekend the place where I worked was shut down due to partner dispute so I did not do my usual posting on Sunday. Now I’m going to make up today and maybe post more frequently until something else comes up, jobwise.   Continuing on the topic of Kaiser Fung’s Numbersense book, I’m going to…

[one-half][/one-half][one-half last]Nate Silver is known for doing an amazing job of predicting outcomes of elections. Unfortunately, I can’t claim such distinction. But I have done a few forecasting while in the finance/project control departments and have had a few successes. The following is my favorite story. Back in 1998, I was working as a financial…