Corona 10.15.2021: Cases dropping
Since last week, not much has changed: the US is still on a downward trend which is kind of hard to believe. Maybe we have quite a bit of vaccination that it is starting to take effect. One can only hope.
[All data from CDC. See at bottom of post for links.]
USA and Regions
The largest drops in all categories (cases, deaths, hospitalizations and positivity) are in the Southern region followed by the Western region with a slight drop. The Midwestern and Northeastern region are dropping too but just a bit. The South was definitely leading the surge over the summer and so the cases are starting to calm down.
Southern Region
I know it’s hard to see the numbers but you can see the two, in some cases three, surges. The larger surges are the December-January-February timeframe and the summer of 2021 timeframe. The summer of 2021 surge was just about as bad as the winter surge.
Western Region
The West has a different profile: the surges were not as dramatic as the South, although there were some states with greater surges. Some states look like they are starting to surge because the cold weather is starting to kick in: Oregon, Idaho, Montana, Alaska. Utah, Colorado, New Mexico and Wyoming seem to be showing a smaller surge.
Midwestern Region
The Midwest kind of look similar to the West where some states appear to be rising or peaking: Idaho, Minnesota, Michigan, North Dakota, Wisconsin. Again, they are not as bad as the South.
Northeastern Region
It kind of feels like the Northeast is starting to get some surges but due to their vaccination rate, which I think is higher than average, the Northeast should not suffer a high surge. The surge, if any, should be nowhere near the levels of the South.
Closing
The next couple of months (October, November, December and January) should show how well the vaccination works. If we get large surges, then the vaccination may not be working, or the unvaccinated are really out in force socializing, without social distancing and without masks. Some people are hoping that the summer surge is the last surge and others say the winter surge will be the last one.
Until there is a new variant.
Sources of Data
WORLD : Cases and deaths from Wikipedia website https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_by_country_and_territory
US and STATES : Five main sources of data are available – Wikipedia, COVID Tracking Project, CDC, JHU, and HHS
Wikipedia: Wikipedia has broken out their tables into four links, separating out the cases from deaths and separating out the years.
New Cases 2021: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:2019–20_coronavirus_pandemic_data/United_States_medical_cases
New Cases 2020: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:COVID-19_pandemic_data/United_States_daily_cases_in_2020
New Deaths 2021: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:COVID-19_pandemic_data/United_States_daily_deaths
New Deaths 2020: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:COVID-19_pandemic_data/United_States_daily_deaths_in_2020
COVID Tracking Project: The COVID Tracking Project was a collaborative effort of free labor overseen by The Atlantic. This project ended on 3/7/2021. The Atlantic’s COVID Tracking Project was provided under Common Creative license “CC BY-NC-4.0” and covered cases, deaths, hospitalization, and positivity, amongst other data.
API: https://covidtracking.com/api/v1/states/daily.csv
Table: daily
CDC: CDC has become a replacement for the COVID Tracking Project for me although the data will often come in a few days later. Hospitalization comes in a week later. I’m tracking cases, deaths, hospitalization, and positivity.
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, COVID-19 Response. COVID-19 Case Surveillance Public Data Access, Summary, and Limitations
Table: rows
API:
Cases and deaths: https://data.cdc.gov/api/views/9mfq-cb36/rows.csv
Hospitalization: https://beta.healthdata.gov/api/views/g62h-syeh/rows.csv (Good data doesn’t start until about 7/15/2020)
Testing: https://beta.healthdata.gov/api/views/j8mb-icvb/rows.csv
Positivity: https://beta.healthdata.gov/api/views/j8mb-icvb/rows.csv
John Hopkins University (JHU): I rarely show these sets of data; I mostly use Wikipedia or CDC but sometimes I like to reference the JHU.
Please cite our Lancet Article for any use of this data in a publication (link)
Provided by Johns Hopkins University
Center for Systems Science and Engineering (JHU CSSE):
https://systems.jhu.edu/
Terms of Use:
1. This data set is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) by the Johns Hopkins University on behalf of its Center for Systems Science in Engineering. Copyright Johns Hopkins University 2020.
2. Attribute the data as the “COVID-19 Data Repository by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University” or “JHU CSSE COVID-19 Data” for short, and the
url: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19.
3. For publications that use the data, please cite the following publication: “Dong E, Du H, Gardner L. An interactive web-based dashboard to track COVID-19 in real time. Lancet Inf Dis. 20(5):533-534. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30120-1”
Website https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19
HHS: Hospitalization data for US – can be US level, state level or county level
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