Coronavirus Update 6/24/2022
It’s been a while and it’s time to do an update on this coronavirus because my hometown is surging – not in an explosive way – but there are definite signs cases are going up. Fortunately, hospitalization and deaths remain quiescent. Hopefully I’m not jinxing this.
First, before putting up my usual set of graphs, I do need to point out that since people can perform tests at home, the case counts may be suspect; they may be undercounted since people are not likely to report in their test results. Hospitalization and deaths count start to become more important as those eventually gets reported. There may be a lag time, but they get reported at some point.
Sources of data for all of the graphs can be found at the end of the post in a special box.
US still outpaces the rest of the world
The first graph, whose data comes from Wiki, shows that for a while the US’s cumulative cases flattened like the rest of the world but now shows a slope indicating real surges, possibly from the Omicron variant.
Image 1: US cumulative cases versus rest of world
Europe as a whole is undergoing a surge, followed by South America
When I look at the continents, Europe stands out because there are multiple countries undergoing varying rates of surges. Image 2, whose source is again from Wiki, shows the major continents.
Image 2: Continents comparison
US and the Regions – Cases
As I mentioned earlier, case counts are becoming suspect – probably undercounted – but still, it can be illustrative. The US had a tiny surge, as relative to earlier surges, and has flattened out. This surge kind of feels milder than the earlier ones. The news articles are not as frantic, or maybe we all are just numbed by the continuing appearance of the variants. The variants just keep coming, so we’re just kind of numbed by it after two years. The height of this surge is not as high as last summer at this time, although we are in the early part of the summer.
And we came off of the January/February Omicron winter surge.
As for the regions, the Northeast and the Midwest show improving situation while the South and the West have flatlined.
Image 3: Cases for US and Regions, 6/24/2022
US and the Regions – Hospitalization
Hospitalization is still pretty placid. While there has been a slight rise in hospitalization, it looks like it is flattening out. With the exception of the South, it looks like most of the regions have hospitalization under control.
And I’m also not reading about how hospitals are preparing to add space or bring in more people due to overflow in demands. That intense use of capacity doesn’t seem to be there. It feels quieter.
Image 4: Hospitalization for US and Regions, 6/25/2022
US and Regions – Deaths
Based upon the graph, deaths appear to be fairly quiet. It does not appear to be surging right now. Does that mean we have immunity? I have no idea. We either have enough vaccination for the time being or some presence of immunity in the community that deaths are occurring at a relatively low rate.
Image 5: Deaths for US and Regions, 6/24/2022
Closing
Everything feels very quiet right now. No screaming articles about dire situations in the hospitals; no heart rending stories about people dying; no dirge for those who left us.
Or it could be that everybody is just tired of hearing this news after two years of non-stop emergency status. People want to get back to normal; I know I do.
But does that mean that those who are the elderly or who have underlying conditions or are immunocompromised can now go about business as normal? Probably not. If you are not susceptible to adverse results, you probably can go about as normal but those with the aforementioned weaknesses probably can’t let down their guard. They may have to continue to mask and/or to social distance.
It will be interesting to see what happens in the fall or January of next year, when the real surges took place in the last two years. Do surges reach as high as in January/February of 2022 or do they remain on the low end?
Only time will tell.
Sources of Data
WORLD : Cases and deaths from Wikipedia website https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_by_country_and_territory
US and STATES : Five main sources of data are available – Wikipedia, COVID Tracking Project, CDC, JHU, and HHS
Wikipedia: Wikipedia has broken out their tables into four links, separating out the cases from deaths and separating out the years.
New Cases 2021: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:2019–20_coronavirus_pandemic_data/United_States_medical_cases
New Cases 2020: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:COVID-19_pandemic_data/United_States_daily_cases_in_2020
New Deaths 2021: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:COVID-19_pandemic_data/United_States_daily_deaths
New Deaths 2020: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:COVID-19_pandemic_data/United_States_daily_deaths_in_2020
COVID Tracking Project: The COVID Tracking Project was a collaborative effort of free labor overseen by The Atlantic. This project ended on 3/7/2021. The Atlantic’s COVID Tracking Project was provided under Common Creative license “CC BY-NC-4.0” and covered cases, deaths, hospitalization, and positivity, amongst other data.
API: https://covidtracking.com/api/v1/states/daily.csv
Table: daily
CDC: CDC has become a replacement for the COVID Tracking Project for me although the data will often come in a few days later. Hospitalization comes in a week later. I’m tracking cases, deaths, hospitalization, and positivity.
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, COVID-19 Response. COVID-19 Case Surveillance Public Data Access, Summary, and Limitations
Table: rows
API:
Cases and deaths: https://data.cdc.gov/api/views/9mfq-cb36/rows.csv
Hospitalization: https://beta.healthdata.gov/api/views/g62h-syeh/rows.csv (Good data doesn’t start until about 7/15/2020)
Testing: https://beta.healthdata.gov/api/views/j8mb-icvb/rows.csv
Positivity: https://beta.healthdata.gov/api/views/j8mb-icvb/rows.csv
John Hopkins University (JHU): I rarely show these sets of data; I mostly use Wikipedia or CDC but sometimes I like to reference the JHU.
Please cite our Lancet Article for any use of this data in a publication (link)
Provided by Johns Hopkins University
Center for Systems Science and Engineering (JHU CSSE):
https://systems.jhu.edu/
Terms of Use:
1. This data set is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) by the Johns Hopkins University on behalf of its Center for Systems Science in Engineering. Copyright Johns Hopkins University 2020.
2. Attribute the data as the “COVID-19 Data Repository by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University” or “JHU CSSE COVID-19 Data” for short, and the
url: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19.
3. For publications that use the data, please cite the following publication: “Dong E, Du H, Gardner L. An interactive web-based dashboard to track COVID-19 in real time. Lancet Inf Dis. 20(5):533-534. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30120-1”
Website https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19
HHS: Hospitalization data for US – can be US level, state level or county level
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