England’s Coronavirus

Last week I really didn’t blog much because I was working on something else, so I’m catching up this week. Besides, it is time to take another look at where we are with the pandemic – it’s been a while.

World

Data for the world is coming from Wikipedia. See the “Sources of Data” box at bottom of this post.

Image 1: Comparing Continents – 11/3/2021

First, I hadn’t mentioned Europe before but they had been undergoing a surge for a while, driven by England and then Eastern Europe such as Ukraine, Serbia and Romania. As usual, I hadn’t seen anything in the news about a surge which surprised me because it was a definite surge. Now that European surge looks like it has crested, again driven by England.

Image 2: Europe Moving Average – 11/3/2021

You can see in Image 2 that UK’s cases in the dark green has lately started to decline. Romania is also declining while Serbia has leveled out. I do remember that several months ago, and I may have mentioned it here, that UK opened up everything despite the surging cases and I was wondering what was going to happen. The cases really surged and while it is currently declining, I wonder if the daily case count will remain at a high level for a while since they are not making any effort to curtail it. Fortunately, I think they have a high rate of vaccination so that might be the reason for their supposed cavalier attitude (if I remember everything correctly). [I’m reading a little snippet of news from the Daily Caller on July 5, 2021 that Boris announced plans to reopen everything, end mask mandates and end social distancing by end of July. My chart shows UK surging in July.]

In the surging mix now – previously it was just UK, Ukraine, Romania and Serbia – is Germany. Their surge feels rapid. Belgium and Austria are also rising.

Asia and South America have been declining, although within Asia, Russia and Turkey are rising. In South America, even Brazil has managed to enforce a downward trend. I don’t know how they did it but they did and did it better than the US.

US

Most of the charts are based upon CDC’s data.

The US has been undergoing a decline (see Image 1 above) but we’ve recently been seeing an upsurge of cases.

So you can kind of see glimmers of case surge happening in the Midwest and West (Midwest line is kind of hiding behind the West). If there are any surge happening in the Northeast – and I kind of think there is – the surge is so faint at this time. I believe the Northeast has the best vaccination rate out of all the regions. The South is still coming off of the summer surge although when I look at individual states, I see some glimmers there too.

Hospitalization is still flat in most regions although the West kind of looks like a surge may begin there. The trends for deaths are still quiet and hopefully they will remain so due to vaccination. Positivity trend for the West is definitely on the upswing.

Overall summary for the US is cases are starting to rise in the US with Midwest and the West leading the way.

Individual States in the Regions

Let’s kind of drill down into the particulars of the states in each region. I’m not going to go in to details but will just show the charts. First let’s look at the regions. The source of data is from Wikipedia here. In Image 10, you can see some of the breakout states in the Midwest and West.

Here’s another looks to separate out the states for a better look at whether the state is surging or not. In these charts, I’m back to using the CDC data. I’ve circled in red those states that I thought was either definitely surging or showing signs of an incipient surge.

Even the South is showing a surprising jump in the case counts. I’ll have to see if those higher counts persist in the coming weeks or if the state is just catching up in reporting its data.

I would like to say more but it is getting late and I am past the time when I begin collecting data. So it is time to end this post.