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It’s Europe’s Turn with the Coronavirus

This week Europe appears to be really surging, with Germany and Eastern European powering most of the surge. That orange line in Image 1 is Europe going up, up, up.

All international charts are coming from Wikipedia. See box on Source of Data at end of post.

Image 1: Comparison of continents 11/16/2021

Image 1: Comparison by continents

I'm going to show each of the individual continents so that more details can be shown. Off to the right is Europe. I've highlighted in red the salient table listing the top 10 European countries over the last 14 days. With the exception of Ukraine, all countries are seeing rising cases. The area circled in red is supposed to highlight the Ukrainian line which is a dull yellow line, seeming to dip downward. Ukraine had been surging, surging, surging for quite a while and now they've finally turned downward.

Down below, in Image 3, you can see South America flatlining - even the notorious Brazil. They finally got the virus to recede! Hopefully they can maintain this (or better still, keep declining).

To the right below is Image 4 showing Asia declining. The two top countries for this continent, which I've circled in red, are Russia and Turkey. Those two countries appeared to have finally stabilized although Russia is questionable. Sometimes I think they are still surging and other times just leveling out at a high level of cases. That country has seen so much pain in the last few decades.

Image 3: South America 11/16/2021

Image 3: South America

Image 5: Africa 11/16/2021

Image 5: Africa 11/16/2021

Image 2: Europe 11/16/2021

Image 2: Europe 11/16/2021

Image 4: Asia 11/16/2021

Image 4: Asia

Off to the left is Africa. It looks like Africa is doing something right because they've flatlined at practically zero.

 

All chart data came from Wikipedia.

US and Regions

Let's look at the US very quickly. Right now, it appears that the surge is happening in the Midwest and a bit in the Northeast. The West's positivity looks like a rather dramatic rise which might be what is driving the overall US rise in positivity. So, we should start to see a rise in cases in the West; in individual states, we are definitely seeing surges. Hospitalizations are rising in the Midwest and might be beginning in the Northeast.

So that is a very quick review of the overall US and regions. Data comes from the CDC.

Image 6: Cases 11/15/2021 - CDC

Image 6: US Cases 11/15/2021

Image 8: US Deaths 11/15/2021

Image 8: US Deaths 11/15/2021

Image 7: US Hospitalization 11/16/2021

Image 7: US Hospitalization 11/16/2021

Image 9: US Positivity 11/13/2021

Image 9: US Positivity 11/13/2021

Regional Breakout into Individual States

We can see some states popping out. Michigan is a stark example but New York, Pennsylvania and Massachusetts also have been rising, yet I haven't read anything in the news. The West also had some states with rising cases but they are bunched so it is kind of hard to see which one. Colorado, Arizona, Utah and maybe New Mexico seem to be the ones in the West going up. I have some more charts that will break out the line charts into individual charts.

Image 10: Regional Breakouts

Data comes from Wikipedia.

Individual States

The following charts source the data from CDC.

I'm not going to go into a lot of explanation because it is running late but you can see strong surges in Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, Vermont, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Utah, and Colorado. There are other states that are surging - at least to me - throughout the entire Midwest, Northeast and West. The only region that appears quiet is the South and that area had suffered during the summer so maybe it is time for some quiet in that region.

It could be the fall/winter surges are beginning - just in time for the holidays. Let's hope that the vaccination reduces the severity and pain throughout the region. I know everybody is tired of being careful and wants to celebrate the holiday season.

 

Image 11: Midwest Cases 11/15/2021 - CDC

Image 11: Midwest Cases 11/15/2021

Image 13: Northeast Cases 11/15/2021 - CDC

Image 13: Northeast Cases 11/15/2021

Image 15: West Cases 11/15/2021 - CDC

Image 15: West Cases 11/15/2021

Image 17: South Cases 11/15/2021 - CDC

Image 17: South Cases 11/15/2021

Image 12: Midwest Hospitalization 11/16/2021 - CDC

Image 12: Midwest Hospitalization 11/16/2021

Image 14: Northeast Hospitalization 11/16/2021 - CDC

Image 14: Northeast Hospitalization 11/16/2021

Image 16: West Hospitalization 11/16/2021 - CDC

Image 16: West Hospitalization 11/16/2021

Sources of Data

WORLD : Cases and deaths from Wikipedia website https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_by_country_and_territory

US and STATES : Five main sources of data are available – Wikipedia, COVID Tracking Project, CDC, JHU, and HHS

Wikipedia: Wikipedia has broken out their tables into four links, separating out the cases from deaths and separating out the years.
New Cases 2021: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:2019–20_coronavirus_pandemic_data/United_States_medical_cases
New Cases 2020: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:COVID-19_pandemic_data/United_States_daily_cases_in_2020
New Deaths 2021: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:COVID-19_pandemic_data/United_States_daily_deaths
New Deaths 2020: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:COVID-19_pandemic_data/United_States_daily_deaths_in_2020

COVID Tracking Project: The COVID Tracking Project was a collaborative effort of free labor overseen by The Atlantic. This project ended on 3/7/2021. The Atlantic’s COVID Tracking Project was provided under Common Creative license “CC BY-NC-4.0” and covered cases, deaths, hospitalization, and positivity, amongst other data.
API: https://covidtracking.com/api/v1/states/daily.csv
Table: daily

CDC: CDC has become a replacement for the COVID Tracking Project for me although the data will often come in a few days later. Hospitalization comes in a week later. I’m tracking cases, deaths, hospitalization, and positivity.
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, COVID-19 Response. COVID-19 Case Surveillance Public Data Access, Summary, and Limitations
Table: rows

API:
Cases and deaths: https://data.cdc.gov/api/views/9mfq-cb36/rows.csv
Hospitalization: https://beta.healthdata.gov/api/views/g62h-syeh/rows.csv (Good data doesn’t start until about 7/15/2020)
Testing: https://beta.healthdata.gov/api/views/j8mb-icvb/rows.csv
Positivity: https://beta.healthdata.gov/api/views/j8mb-icvb/rows.csv

John Hopkins University (JHU): I rarely show these sets of data; I mostly use Wikipedia or CDC but sometimes I like to reference the JHU.

Please cite our Lancet Article for any use of this data in a publication (link)
Provided by Johns Hopkins University
Center for Systems Science and Engineering (JHU CSSE):

https://systems.jhu.edu/

Terms of Use:

1. This data set is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) by the Johns Hopkins University on behalf of its Center for Systems Science in Engineering. Copyright Johns Hopkins University 2020.

2. Attribute the data as the “COVID-19 Data Repository by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University” or “JHU CSSE COVID-19 Data” for short, and the

url: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19.

3. For publications that use the data, please cite the following publication: “Dong E, Du H, Gardner L. An interactive web-based dashboard to track COVID-19 in real time. Lancet Inf Dis. 20(5):533-534. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30120-1”

Website https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19

HHS: Hospitalization data for US – can be US level, state level or county level

url: https://healthdata.gov/api/views/anag-cw7u/rows.csv

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