Not much changed since last time on coronavirus

Since the last post on this subject, I don’t think much has changed: Michigan was seeing a frightening surge, at least graphically, and most of the Northeast was facing an incipient upsurge. Today, that is still pretty much the same message except I would add a couple more midwestern states in addition to Michigan that is seeing an increase in cases, but nobody has Michigan’s signature upsurge profile.

Around the World

The data for the world comes from Wikipedia and is as of 4/10/2021.

Let’s look at around the world first because the world is showing signs of an increase in cases. It’s subtle but you can see the slope slightly more vertical.

Image 1: World’s cumulative cases (on left) and cumulative deaths (on right)

Previously, Brazil was the country undergoing a scary increase in cases, and they still are, but now India has a particularly scary ascent in number of cases. The purple line is India with that scary upturn in slope – it looks like the cases is just going to just shoot straight up.

Image 2: Top 10 Cumulative Cases

Brazil still tops everyone in how deaths are trending; I wonder why that country is having such a hard time with people dying? The bright blue line is Brazil; India is still purple.

Image 3: Top 10 Cumulative Deaths

Here’s a version that shows the daily tracking by each continent; Asia (the dark blue line) really stands out with its nearly vertical rise.

Image 4: Daily Cases for each Continents

Drilling down to Asia only, I find out that the two largest drivers are India and Turkey. The next image has various charts and a table. You can really see India surging in the upper right chart and the lower right chart (another viewpoint) shows the surges growing in April.

Image 5: Cases for Asian countries

South America used to be strictly driven by Brazil but other countries are now coming into play while Brazil (bright blue line) appears to have cooled off (not in the deaths though): Argentina, Colombia and Peru). Previously, Brazil’s bright blue line in the upper right chart practically matched the purple line in the upper left chart, but no more. It appears that other countries are becoming more significant.

Image 6: Cases for South American countries

And finally Europe: Europe is harder to tell because the major advanced European countries such as France, Germany, Italy, Great Britain, Spain, now don’t report their numbers every day. It is harder for me to discern the story; so much so, that I’ve taken to looking at the seven day moving averages. Europe as a whole appears to be declining at the moment as they wrestle with their upsurges.

Image 7: Cases for European countries

Are all of these upsurges due to the new variants? I don’t know. The steep rises found in India and France makes me think so but I really don’t know. It could be people getting pandemic fatigue.

Now the US

The sources are still from Wikipedia and are as of 4/10/2021.

First, let’s look at the cases from a regional perspective. The bright blue line is the Midwest and you can see the shallow U of the line since January. The dark blue is the Northeast with a very shallow U while I consider the South (orange) and the West (pink) as being flat since March.

Image 8: Regional Cases

Further breaking out these regions (I enlarged the image so you can see better the details), I find that Michigan (bright green) and Illinois (pink) showing definite increases with Minnesota (red, just below the pink on the right) kind of rising. With the Northeast, to my eye, almost the entire region is facing a surge, with Pennsylvania showing the strongest upsurge. This impression becomes clearer when I see the charts for each states, which will be shown later. In the South, Florida (the orange line) pops out for me; the other states appear to be on a flatline state. The Western region also appears to be in a flatline state – no state sticks out like a sore thumb.

Michigan is clearly facing rising numbers of infection; no other states are undergoing that kind of infection rate…at this time.

Image 9: Regional states

Midwest and Northeast States

The rest of this post will be images of states in each region so you can see a bird’s eye view of the region’s state of affairs. In some images, I’ve circled in red areas that I thought showed more than usual rising indications.

The source of data for these are mostly from the CDC with its varying update dates: cases and deaths are as of 4/9/2021, hospitalization as of 4/10/2021, and testing/positivity as of 4/8/2021.

Zero in on a few selected states

To wrap up this post, I’m just going to put up some images but do no opining or giving my analyses, mainly because it is getting late and I need to pull today’s data. First up is Michigan. Michigan is the state with the second highest number of new variant circulating in the community which I think is the reason why Michigan is showing such dire straits. Their hospitalization and deaths are also on the rise. I think they are at the stage where non-essential hospitalization are not being booked.

Florida is the state with the most new variants but the state does not show such dire signs. I don’t know why; one would think they would be suffering because they have everything open and they are crazy about the masking.