Random thoughts

Today is going to be just sort of some random thoughts spilled out into this post. Nothing about new Excel tricks, amazing AI stuff, or enraging stuff from the hard-core capitalists, etc.

I believe I said I would do a post outlining my thoughts about a project, but I am still cogitating over it (and probably doing an ostrich exercise).

A lot of this will be stuff that surprised me.

2025 hurricane season has officially ended

Yay! I can sort of relax now, although we still have December, but it is not as worrying.

This season was different in that there were no landfalls in the US and only one landfill during the entire season. I would celebrate except Jamaica got hit HARD with a Cat 5. I never want anyone to get hit with such disaster.

It appears to me that the storms that did develop were either very weak tropical storms or raging Cat 3, 4, or 5 hurricanes. No hurricane stopped at Cat 1 or 2, and I don’t think there were any 3s either. They all racketed up to the Cat 4 and 5.

Okay, I take that back: I did a quick search and found that there was one hurricane that peaked at Cat 2 and none peaked at 3, but there were quite a number of 5s.

So, very strong intensification of storms this season, once the storm progressed beyond tropical storm status.

And, I think it kind of means the juice in the Caribbean and the Gulf has not been released…the heat is still stored deep in the ocean.

Surprise 1! The election

The election we had in November was a surprise.

The strong lurch to the Democrat column, just 10 or 11 months after the main election, was surprising. The strength of the movement was surprising. I did think that there would be some regrets and movement back to the Democrat column, but not to the level such that even deep red states voted Democrats, right down to the local school boards.

It seemed like the shift was everywhere.

I know the Dems are kind of cheering but for me, I am a little uneasy.

The anger seems to be building.

Right now, I think Republicans are still Republicans, except maybe for a few along the edges. I wouldn’t be surprised that some have left, largely because of the economic situation.

I think most of the Independents have moved over and now it is beginning to nibble at the edges of the Republicans, all because of the rising costs of everyday items such as groceries, clothes, housing goods, etc.

The one refrain that came out of this election was affordability. People, especially those that voted Republicans, are starting to squeal in pain. I suspect people are now understanding the impact of tariffs.

And I believe they are starting to believe that their healthcare is next.

Why is this cause for concern?

Well, remember that Luigi Mangione, who killed the UnitedHealthcare CEO? When I read comments in the videos, there were some talk of “guillotine” and “French revolution”. But I think – hope – that was with the fringe.

Well, now with this widespread anger about the cost of things, about the affordability, I saw talk about “guillotine” and “French revolution” in mainstream arena. I only saw it once but that is enough to freak me out. Is the idea starting to shift to the main body of the population?

I don’t know but scary times, scary times.

The billionaires and the multi-millionaires need to take note and sort of ease up on the tax and regulations. Give in to the tax increases and relent to the necessary business regulations. The billionaires and multi-millionaires need to reorient their values from packing their pocketbooks with moola and think about driving business for stakeholder (not shareholder) values.

This could be a way to head off violence.

It could be a way of compromising some terms of taxation to a more amenable level without inducing violence. You want to reduce the anger and give people hope.

And the calls for layoffs need to go away.

Relent and increase the minimum wage.

There is a lot that the billionaires and multi-millionaires can do to reduce the chances of some kind of violent uprising.

Surprise 2 – Zohran Mamdami!

I knew he was nominated to run as a Democrat and Andrew Cuomo ran as an independent and Chris Sliwa as a Republican. I think that was the general set up.

This election choice was a surprise because I didn’t think New York City would be ready to vote in Muslim – the city was attacked in 9/11/2001 by Muslims. But then, I was surprised by Obama’s election into the presidency.

People always surprise me. Sometimes they can rise to the occasion.

It is said Mamdami won on the strength of his message: affordability. And so did the gubernatorial candidates for New Jersey and Virginia.

I don’t know what his platform is but there had been some consternation about his socialist proclivities. The one I hear the most is his idea of government run grocery stores and that just freaks out the Republicans and capitalist types (even those who are Democrats).

My understanding is that he wants to have government run groceries in “food desert” areas. In other words, in areas where there are no grocery stores – basically areas where capitalism or free markets have failed.

If no business wants to have a store in the “food desert” areas, then why not let the government set them up for those people (I bet they are people living below the poverty line)? Governments are supposed to protect the people but also help people survive and thrive (benefits, education, and maybe now grocery stores).

If no business wants to offer a grocery service in the “food desert”, then it is not socialism or communism if the government steps in where capitalism has failed.

During the Great Depression, capitalism failed and government stepped in to try to jump start the economy.

The other thing is: Mamdami will be governing only New York City, not the entire US. This could be an experiment to see if government run grocery stores for “food desert” only will work. It will have no impact on the rest of the US.

I know people are worried about the idea spreading to other cities and states, but I suspect that if the experiment is successful, it will only travel to “food desert” areas.

Because you generally want to have competition.

Surprise 3 – he looks so ill!

Between his swollen ankles, his bruised and bandaged hands, his drooping mouth and his constant “napping”, he doesn’t look so good. It is surprising how quickly he has deteriorated.

How can he perform the duties while being ill?

He doesn’t look like he is enjoying it. He should just retire.

Although if he did, it would set up a huge battle for control and could accelerate conflict, so in a way, I don’t want him to retire.

This is a dangerous time. Between murmurs of “French revolution” and the ill health of the President, it feels like things are on razor’s edge.

AI continues to gobble up jobs

Everyday I see more videos with dire headlines about how there will be few employed by 2027, 2028, 2030. CEOs are now talking about the need to right size the organization to suit the AI era.

Basically, AI will be taking over jobs.

But at the same time, there is a constant trickle from the news about how the AI agents are not working. CEOs are trying to figure out how to make them work. The returns are seemingly not there.

I don’t know… but that’s a pressure point on the economy.

Another pressure point is the incestuous investments the AI companies are doing. Like Nvidia makes a huge investment in OpenAI and then OpenAI signs a contract to buy gazillion chips from Nvidia.

Then Nvidia turns around and make some kind of investment elsewhere and the new investment also decides to buy their chips.

The term bandied about for these kinds of agreements are circular investments/deals/financing. They kind of feel hincky and so there has been talk about AI bubble. This bubble is a pressure point on the economy.

All of these companies are engaging in some form of circular deals: Microsoft, Nvidia, Anthropic, OpenAI, AMD, Oracle.

OpenAI currently has huge commitments to purchase chips or services or whatever and it is still not profitable. It does have revenue but it still loses money, so its large circular commitments are worrisome.

So between the ongoing job losses, threat of AI permanently taking over jobs, and this rickety circular financing, the economy feels ominous.

For a good primer on the AI situation, click on the following link: Are we all living inside an AI bubble? Inside circular deals and the quiet financial loop they created