The Numbers Jumped

The numbers are trending flat now rather than declining. We seemed to have hit the lower floor of around 20,000 to 30,000 cases per day with an occasional strange jump in the numbers. Are those jumps previously missed counts or corrections or the start of a new upward trend?

Here’s a series for the date 4/8/2022. JHU showed a clear jump up to around 90,000 which took me by surprise. I was concerned that this was a start of a dramatic rise.

But no, by the 4/14/2022, the numbers fell back to normal with a slight jump again on the 14th.

I’m not sure what to take with these jumps. I do believe that the test results are being undercounted since people are taking tests at home and not reporting in the numbers. So, we’re missing a HUGE number of testing results. We’re essentially flying blind at this point. And then layer on top the lack of social distancing and masking, the virus could begin to percolate furiously, and we wouldn’t know it until too late.

One last set of graphics before I move onto the first signs of a possible surge related to the new variant Omicron BA2. Image 7 on the left depicts the three main surges and a possible fourth lying in the wings: original Covid-19 in 2020, Delta surge in summer/fall 2021, Omicron surge around January 2022, and the newest Omicron BA2 may be just starting. Maybe.

Image 8 on the right provides some generalized charts for the US. Here, you can see that the positivity is starting to trend up, even though the testing data is probably seriously undercounted. (I’ve circled in red the uptick.)

Signs of BA2 Surges

I think the news say that the newest variant Omicron BA2 has now overtaken the infection count; thus, scientists and doctors regard this new variant as more contagious than prior versions, but they think it may still be not just as deadly. The first Omicron had milder outcomes for the healthy vaccinated, as a general rule.

Those tracking the counts say they see signs of a new surge in the Northeast. Now, I was not seeing the upticks so I had to circumscribe the dates to a more recent rather than display the case counts since inception because the January 2022 levels were so high that they are swamping any surge that may be picking up now. I can’t see any upticks because the January 2022 counts were distorting the charts.

The following charts are restricted to 21 days I think to see if I can tease out any upticks. So far, I’m seeing upticks only in the northeast – just as the news say – and maybe in Florida.

You can also see how some states are not very regular in tracking their cases. We’re very anxious to get back to pre-Covid so this era, cross my fingers, may be receding. The summer and then next fall/winter will tell us whether we are approaching the endemic stage.