2025 Summer Hurricane Season
The latest predictions for 2025 summer/fall season are that the hurricane season will be above average but not as intense as last year. One article has 125% above average. So, I guess it will be a little bit better than last year but still dreadful.
However, one of the article appears contradictory: on one hand, there are signs of a slightly greater threat of landfall and on the other hand, there will be less landfall. So, a little hard to determine what they are saying.
The sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are still above average but are markedly cooler than last year. If the waters can stay cooler longer, then the threat lessens. I’ll see if the heat waves that we had the last 2 summers show up again. If I remember correctly, the abnormal heat waves occurred in June last year.
The La Nina will be weaker this year and may actually go away. La Nina has no wind shear and thus hurricanes have a better chance of forming. El Nino is the one with wind shear that can rip apart hurricanes. The weather people are not saying that El Nino will hold sway; just that la Nina will be weaker or neutral.
The final element that I can think of is the Saharan dust. The last two years the dust was pretty extensive and lingered for quite a while such that it impeded hurricane development. It remains to be seen if another round of the Saharan dust will traverse the Atlantic and break up any storm formation.
Here’s one of the links to the news about the upcoming hurricane season: https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2025-04-16-hurricane-season-outlook-twc-april
Here’s the one that shows the 2025 risks for each states: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/weather/2025/04/03/will-hurricane-hit-your-state-in-2025/82792503007/#
2025 Spring Season
We’re in the midst of the spring season which brings in intense storms with thunderstorms, flooding and tornadoes. March and April was pretty active.
The reason why I bring this up is what it portends for the hurricane season.
Or rather the action/non-action of FEMA. The latest news I have is that FEMA has denied Arkansas’ request for funding aid, even though parts of the state endured strong tornadoes and flooding, some twice. This state got hammered with spring storms.
This state is one of the poorer state. It comes in at 46 from the bottom. States worse than Arkansas are: New Mexico, Alabama, West Virginia, and Mississippi. This ranking is income per capita and as of 2022.
For the website, go to this link: Average Income by State 2025. There’s a map there and from a quick eyeball, the wealthier states are in the Northeast and Midwest and the poor ones are in the south. No surprise there.
I don’t know if the FEMA denial is a foretaste of things to come. I checked the latest news before doing this post and the last set of news was Governor Sarah Huckabee still respectfully requesting funding.
To see the site that I checked, go here: https://www.snopes.com/news/2025/04/25/fema-arkansas-tornado-relief/
So, it looks like even Republican states may have trouble getting help for these storms. Arkansas voted for Trump 64.2% to 33.6%. That’s a plus 30, deeply red.
By the end of this season, if the FEMA denials continue, there are going to be a lot of people in a world of hurt. It doesn’t bear thinking.
There is a phrase going around: “you’re having the day you voted for”. It currently applies to Arkansas. By the end of the season, many more may be hearing that refrain: “you’re having the day you voted for”.
That’s deeply sad. I hope FEMA reconsiders.
