Critical thinking on the 2026 Texas Midterm polls

While this topic is not finance/FP&A related, it has elements of thinking about your data. Some news came across my feed saying the early voting turnout on the Democrat side suggests that Texas is turning BLUE! I want to add some critical thinking to the delirious news media presentation.

I’ve heard that many times over the years – maybe the last decade or so – and it never happens.

Will Texas turn blue and vote in a Democrat for the Senate seat in November? It’s possible but I highly doubt it for a couple of reasons – no matter what the media or political analysts say.

Yes, some of these commentators are hyperventilating about the possibility of Texas turning blue for the Senate race – even that CNN pollster star Harry Enten appears to be swooning.

Background on candidates

Right now, Texas is undergoing its primary race for John Cornyn’s Senate seat. His 6 years are up and so he has to run.

On the Republican side, the candidates are John Cornyn, Wesley Hunt and Ken Paxton. John Cornyn strikes me as a moderate Republican (I don’t follow politics closely so I may be wrong.) I don’t know much about Wesley Hunt, but I have heard he is an extreme far right. And Ken Paxton – since I live in Texas – comes up in news pretty frequently over the years and the news do not paint him in a very favorable light. He has been accused of some kind of stock impropriety, being associated with some unsavory real estate guy, and maybe some other illegal or untoward behavior while in office as attorney general. Ken has been described as far right too. He was impeached last summer but he did not get charged in the Senate chamber.

It has generally been agreed amongst the political class that Ken Paxton will win on the Republican side.

On the Democrat side, the race is more exciting – at least the news people are tracking this race closely. The two candidates are Jasmine Crockett, a firecracker who came to my attention when she called Marjorie Taylor Greene a “bleach blond bad-built butch body”, and James Talarico, a very religious guy which to my eye is very unusual in the Democrat party.

I don’t know much about Jasmine’s campaign, but Talarico’s strikes me as very good and has a potential of reaching across the aisle into the Republicans. He has been going out into the rural areas, preaching that the “war” is not between left and right but between top and bottom (oligarchs versus everyone else).

Who’s going to win? I have no idea. Both strike me as good candidates for Democrats and should be palatable.

What recent polls are saying

What’s capturing the interests of the punditry is the turnout numbers. On the Republican side, it appears to be on par with the turnout back in 2024. But on the Democrat side, turnout is already greater. The last time Texas Democrats had such a turnout was around 2002 (ancient history).

The Democrat side appear to be highly motivated and thus raising the possibility of turning Texas blue in the Senate race.

But I look at the history of Texas, and I do wonder if the turnout will be large enough.

Critical thinking factors I’m considering

When Obama was running back in 2008, he did not carry Texas. Texas voted Republican through and through. So, even a popular figure such as Obama could not bring Texas over to the blue aisle.

On the demographics side, we have a lot of Hispanics. I’m in the process of pulling Census data so I have lots of questions around the population of Hispanics over the years. Everybody thinks Hispanics are automatically liberal or Democrat.

But people don’t take into account that Hispanics are deeply religious which pulls them into the Republican column. In addition, a lot of them may have fled from left leaning countries whose economy has been trashed by “socialism”. Think Venezuela or Cuba. Anybody who fled from those countries will tie any appearance of “communism” or “socialism” traits with economic disaster.

In 2024, Hispanics pulled even tighter to the Republican column for economic reason. I have heard that with the way ICE and border patrol have been handling the immigration issue, Hispanics have now pulled back toward the left.

The question in my mind is which is stronger: their religious affiliation that pulls them towards the Republican column or the repelling factor of the ICE, driving them into the Democrat column?

If religion is stronger, then Hispanics will stick with the Republican and thus Ken Paxton.

Conclusion

Right now, my gut feel is saying we will have a Republican senator, most likely Ken Paxton, come November.

The white religious people will stay in the Republican corner – nothing will budge them. Not economics, not immigration, not war.

The blacks will go left.

The Hispanics is the question. I need to work on the census data and other data to see how things have been trending.

The other question is if Jasmine Crockett wins the Democrat primary, will the fact that she is a woman pull the male Hispanics to the Republican column? I remember once reading something that said male Hispanics were adamant that no woman will be a leader. The Latinos strike me as having a patriarchal tendency…well, any strongly religious person will pull patriarchal and Latinos are very religious.

I don’t have data to back that up. It is just a gut feel. I will be trying to pull census data on demographics and other data on religion to look at trends.