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It’s Happening – the Omicron Surge

I think the surges are starting to be really apparent. I know in Europe, especially UK, maybe Spain and Italy, are starting to have a REALLY vertical surge much like South Africa did. I will do Europe and the rest of the world tomorrow (I think) but today I want to focus on the US.

There has been heavy news about the surges occurring in the US. It’s kind of starting to have a very vertiginous feel to the surge. I know my hometown, which just a week ago climbed down from a Level 2 warning status to a Level 3 status (again, I think), now all of a sudden is reporting skyrocketing number of new cases. And I mean BAM!

So, it’s looking kind of scary but because of the vaccine, the hospitalization and death rates may not be as severe. However, the Omicron is so contagious that it could still overwhelm the hospitals which would then lead to lower standards of care, less people with non-covid health crisis being taken care of, and higher deaths. The medical personnel are already so tired that this is going to be hard on them – they are already stretched thin. I’m reading how some of them are so angry at the public’s lack of care and consideration, and I don’t blame them. The public don’t seem to care about our medical personnel with their insistence on their freedom from masks and regulations and mandates.

USA and Regions – how the charts look

Image 1: USA and Regions Cases – 12/19/2021

Image 3: USA and Regions Deaths – 12/19/2021

Image 2: USA and Regions Hospitalization – 12/20/2021

Image 4: USA and Regions Positivity – 12/17/2021

All regions – with the exception of the West – are surging, probably due to the Thanksgiving travel, the holiday shopping/festivities, and now the Christmas travel. I think I read somewhere that travel is back to the level of pre-pandemic.

I don’t see the signature vertical profile like South Africa had about a month ago.

Here are the regions separated out into states:

Image 5: Regional Breakouts

Image 6: Regions Broken Out into States

The first thing that struck me is that the Northeast is popping. Maryland has this really incredible surge that it is practically vertical, such that I think there may be some errors in the reporting. New York and New Jersey, though, are experiencing high new cases a day.

Over in the Midwest, I would say that Illinois is experiencing the Omicron surge because the profile looks vertical. Ohio (and not Iowa although the colors of the lines are very close) looks like to be in a similar predicament.

In the South, no particular state stands out as having an Omicron signature surge. Instead, it appears that all of the states are seeing surges that raises the lines off the floor of the chart. Texas might be the one about to experience the vertiginous rise, but it is hard to tell.

And finally, the West shows an overall level number of cases, with the exception of Washington state.

Northeast

Now to look at the individual regions and the states a little more closely.

Image 7: Northeast Cases – 12/19/2021

Image 8: Northeast Hospitalization – 12/20/2021

In these chart series, I can see the Omicron signature surge. Connecticut stands out, but really, it’s all across the region. The Northeast region is the most vaccinated region in the US and yet, the surges are happening.

Even worse, the hospitalizations are starting to rise. And now I’m looking at the numbers for the deaths and they don’t look right, so I’m going to take off the charts related to deaths. The charts are indicating daily deaths recently in the 5000 to 10,000 range. No, that is not correct.

Anyway, hospitalizations are rising in the Northeast which is not good news.

Midwest

Image 9: Midwest Cases – 12/19/2021

Image 11: Midwest Deaths – 12/19/2021

Image 10: Midwest Hospitalization – 12/20/2021

The Midwest are showing surges but they are not as widespread across the region or as vertiginous as the Northeast.

But there do seem to be either rises in hospitalization or high level of hospitalization across the region. And in some states the death rates are starting to rise. I do believe the Midwest are not as vaccinated as the Northeast so that may be why they are experiencing rising deaths.

South

Image 12: South Cases – 12/19/2021

Image 14: South Deaths – 12/19/2021

Image 13: South Hospitalization – 12/20/2021

It looks like the reprieve from the summer Delta surge is over. Cases are starting to rise across the south. Florida, and maybe Kentucky, look like they got the Omicron vertical signature. Hospitalizations do not show large increases but there are some upticks. Death rates are still level except for Kentucky. The Kentucky death rate at the end looks odd that I’m thinking that there may be some data keeping corrections there. Sometimes, when I see a vertical rise like that without a corresponding rise in cases and hospitals, I think data correction.

West

Image 15: West Cases – 12/19/2021

Image 17: West Deaths – 12/19/2021

Image 16: West Hospitalization – 12/20/2021

The West seems to be quieting down since nothing sticks out. It seems like some states are just wrapping up their surges.

I was going to say more about the Christmas surge but 1) I don’t remember what I wanted to write about and 2) I need to move along and do other stuffs – like exercise. So, I will end here and start up again tomorrow.

Sources of Data

WORLD : Cases and deaths from Wikipedia website https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_by_country_and_territory

US and STATES : Five main sources of data are available – Wikipedia, COVID Tracking Project, CDC, JHU, and HHS

COVID Tracking Project: The COVID Tracking Project was a collaborative effort of free labor overseen by The Atlantic. This project ended on 3/7/2021. The Atlantic’s COVID Tracking Project was provided under Common Creative license “CC BY-NC-4.0” and covered cases, deaths, hospitalization, and positivity, amongst other data.
API: https://covidtracking.com/api/v1/states/daily.csv
Table: daily

CDC: CDC has become a replacement for the COVID Tracking Project for me although the data will often come in a few days later. Hospitalization comes in a week later. I’m tracking cases, deaths, hospitalization, and positivity.
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, COVID-19 Response. COVID-19 Case Surveillance Public Data Access, Summary, and Limitations
Table: rows

API:
Cases and deaths: https://data.cdc.gov/api/views/9mfq-cb36/rows.csv
Hospitalization: https://beta.healthdata.gov/api/views/g62h-syeh/rows.csv (Good data doesn’t start until about 7/15/2020)
Testing: https://beta.healthdata.gov/api/views/j8mb-icvb/rows.csv
Positivity: https://beta.healthdata.gov/api/views/j8mb-icvb/rows.csv

John Hopkins University (JHU): I rarely show these sets of data; I mostly use Wikipedia or CDC but sometimes I like to reference the JHU.

Please cite our Lancet Article for any use of this data in a publication (link)
Provided by Johns Hopkins University
Center for Systems Science and Engineering (JHU CSSE):

https://systems.jhu.edu/

Terms of Use:

1. This data set is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) by the Johns Hopkins University on behalf of its Center for Systems Science in Engineering. Copyright Johns Hopkins University 2020.

2. Attribute the data as the “COVID-19 Data Repository by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University” or “JHU CSSE COVID-19 Data” for short, and the

url: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19.

3. For publications that use the data, please cite the following publication: “Dong E, Du H, Gardner L. An interactive web-based dashboard to track COVID-19 in real time. Lancet Inf Dis. 20(5):533-534. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30120-1”

Website https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19

HHS: Hospitalization data for US – can be US level, state level or county level

url: https://healthdata.gov/api/views/anag-cw7u/rows.csv

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