Super El Nino
It’s Memorial Day weekend and thus marks the beginning of summer. For people along the Gulf Coast, it’s also time to start watching the Atlantic and the Caribbean for any signs of hurricanes.
And lately, there’s talk about the super El Nino
What is El Nino?
This is one of the two weather cycles, La Nina and El Nino, that affects the weather system around the world. What’s different this year is there are concerns that this El Nino cycle, which seems to happen every two-to-5-year cycles, may be a super El Nino – the strongest El Nino ever recorded since the 1800s.
New York Times has an article about the 1877/1878 El Nino cycle as a warning of how it could impact people. It is titled “A Powerful El Nino is Forming. If History is a Guide, It Could Hit Hard.”
This article is behind a paywall.
In short, here is a quote about the impact of that particular cycle:
“…in 1877 and 1878, a famine fueled by El Niño killed millions of people across the tropics…”
Chico Harlan, New York Times, “A Powerful El Nino is Forming. If History is a Guide, It Could Hit Hard”, May 21, 2026
This cycle arises when the Pacific waters start to warm, initiating a change in the weather patterns. The northern part of the US becomes warmer and drier, possibly with heat waves, drought and wildfires. The South and Southeast becomes wetter. And supposedly, El Nino suppresses hurricane activity in the Atlantic.
The waters in the Pacific are projected to warm above the 2 degrees C average, landing this cycle in the super cycle.
Why the Concern?
The New York Times talk about food shortages and famine during the 1877/1878 cycle as well as political and economic instability around the world from the El Nino. In some ways, El Nino sounds a lot like the climate change warming the earth but with a concentrated impact. We can look to the super El Nino’s history to see its impact on the people’s psyches.
Lending extra power to our concern is our current state of affairs: high gas prices, high grocery prices, increasing inflation, minimal FEMA aid available, USAID gone. The safety net has been ripped asunder.
And of course, the general mood of the public about our current living situation is sour.
I think today (Memorial Day weekend), there has been another assassination attempt at the White House? My quick perusal indicates the assailant is an emotionally disturbed individual with a prior stay-away order. I don’t know the motive but it’s likely he is unhappy with the way his life is currently.
Now, add the El Nino conditions of heat waves and famine on top of the aforementioned dire situation.
And add the political drama that will be ramping up over the summer.
Oh, almost forgot, and Ebola is roaming around in Africa. Since USAID has been destroyed, Africa’s medical efforts have been weakened so doctors are finding this Ebola outbreak more alarming than usual.
Timing of El Nino
It looks like El Nino may be forming now but the super piece may be starting in the fall/winter period, so the more harmful effects around the world could be in 2027, rather than 2026.
It’s looking like the next few years will be particularly nasty.
