The 4th Surge?
I haven’t done this is a while so let’s see where we stand with this coronavirus thing. First, it looks like continents around the world are undergoing renewed surges, from frightening so, based upon their almost vertical rise.
You can see that Europe, Asia and South America appears to be undergoing an alarming rise, so it makes me wonder if the US will be next. Those rises look like to be nearing vertical which is frightening. I don’t know if these surges are due to the new variants thought.
In Image 2, you can see how the cumulative cases and deaths for the world as a whole; the cases look like, very faintly, its slope is about to get more vertical. There is just a hint of a suggestion there. I’m still debating on the deaths’ side of the image.
So, which countries are driving these surges?
They appear difficult to see so I’m going to “blow” them up a little. By the way, all of the data comes from Wikipedia and the sources of data is listed at the end of this post.
Image 3: Asia
This is still difficult to see but the first two top lines in the top right hand line chart – the purple and the red lines – are easy to see. The purple one represents India and the red one is Turkey. So the top drivers of Asia is India and Turkey. Then the next three drivers are Russia which is represented by the lavender line (very hard to see as it is mixed in a bunch of lines); the Philippines represented by the deep blue line; and Jordan in black line.
The first chart with the single line is just Asia as a whole and shows the steep rise that the continent is now undergoing.
The table on the left below that chart the moving average for 3/27/2021.
Finally, the bar chart on the bottom right shows the daily cases by countries: India is again in purple and the red bar is Turkey – same color scheme as in the chart just above. Power BI is good about keeping the color schemes consistent – I don’t have to worry about that.
Image 4: South America
Here’s South America and right off the bat, you can see that Brazil pretty much drives the course and shape of the entire South American line graph on the left. I would say the entire surge is due to Brazil but there are some other countries that are experiencing their own mini-surges.
Again, the graph is hard to see but Argentina, represented in black, is the next country. Not much but it is definitely number 2. Number 3 would be Peru in dark blue, number 4 would be Colombia in gray and number 5 would be Chile in olive green.
But the runaway would be Brazil. No surprise there if you have been watching the news.
Image 5: Europe
Europe is next and in looking at the line chart on the top right hand side, France in dark blue is just screaming at me. What is going on there? Europe had been on the decline after the January surge (I think that one is UK driven with its new variant) but then in March the cases really began to surge.
Next, as per the table on the lower left hand side, Poland from Eastern Europe is driver number 2. Although hard to tell, Poland is in light pink in the upper and lower right hand charts. The darker pink is Italy and it is in 3rd place as the driver. Fourth and fifth (orange and lavender) is Germany and Ukraine round the list.
Unfortunately, I think the rest of Europe is also undergoing a surge; they are just on a smaller scale compared to France.
Enough about Europe and let’s hit on what is going on in the US. I think we are just about to see a rise in cases, according to the CDC. The cases are driven by the Northeast and the Midwest. For deaths, I don’t see a surge yet in the US as a whole, although the West appears to be heading towards a surge which is odd. I think that might be data catch up from audits.
Positivity has definitely rising but I also know that testing has dropped fairly dramatically so rising positivity could be an indication of not enough testing are being done to capture the state of infection in the community.
Okay, let’s take a look at the four regions to see if I can spot any outbreaking state.
Image 8: Regional cases
For the Midwest I would say Michigan (tan brown) and Illinois (violet). The Northeast is kind of hard to say but, to me, I would say Pennsylvania (bright green) and New Jersey (red). For the South, maybe Florida (purplish pink) but if it is breaking out, it is very subtle. In the West, I’m not seeing a breakout state here.
Okay, to wrap up this post quickly, I’m going to show each regions with the individual states with those circled that I think is experiencing or looks poised to experience a surge.
Some that I circled just sort of suggests that a surge may be incipient – the South and the West are good examples of looking like they are poised to rise. The clear surges are definitely Michigan, Minnesota and New Jersey – well, almost the entire Northeast. Most of the states in the Northeast have a slight U curve in the far right side of the chart.
Are we in the fourth surge? It looks like we are very close to being in a new surge. Michigan is in a definite surge but will the Northeast follow? I haven’t seen hospitalization or deaths go up yet.
Anyway, that is it for this post.
Oops, forgot to list the sources….
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